Zelensky and Putin: Why Not an Immediate Summit?
In the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the possibility of a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian President, remains uncertain.
Volodymyr Zelensky, a successful comedian and TV producer before entering politics in 2019, has accused Putin of terrorism and called him a "moron." This harsh rhetoric suggests that any potential meeting between the two leaders could be fraught with tension.
Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy advisor, has mentioned that direct negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv should be held at a higher level than before, but he did not mention a meeting of the presidents. This ambiguity adds to the uncertainty surrounding a potential meeting.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that any meeting between Putin and Zelensky must be prepared with utmost care, and that delegations at lower levels must first negotiate an agreement. This suggests that progress in lower-level talks could be a precursor to a potential presidential meeting.
However, Volodymyr Yelchenko, the former Ukrainian ambassador to Moscow, doubts the possibility of such a meeting and reaching an agreement. His scepticism is shared by Oryisa Lutsevich, a Ukrainian political scientist, who stated that it would be challenging to convince the public of a sudden change in tone if Putin were to meet with Zelensky.
Possible locations for a meeting include Vienna, Geneva, and Budapest, with Geneva being favored by French President Emmanuel Macron as a neutral site with a history of significant diplomatic summits. However, Hungary is not considered a neutral place for Zelensky due to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocking Ukraine's approximation to the EU.
In the meantime, the Russian advance in Ukraine is coming at a high cost in terms of casualties and is experiencing a decline in mobilization numbers. An increasing number of drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, energy facilities, and railway lines in the rear is causing trouble for Putin.
Despite these challenges, Putin sees himself on the path to victory in the war in Ukraine, with his troops advancing in eastern Ukraine. However, Trump has requested a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, but Putin does not want to jeopardize their relationship.
Tatiana Stanovaya, an exiled Russian political scientist, asserts that Putin will not meet Zelensky under the current circumstances, as he believes the right foundation must be laid first, which in practice means Zelensky accepting Russia's conditions for an end to the war.
Switzerland is willing to host a potential meeting between Putin and Zelensky, but Moscow rejects the Vatican. Turkey or Saudi Arabia are likely venues for a future meeting.
Ukraine is successfully keeping the Russian fleet at bay in the Black Sea, adding another layer of complexity to the already tense situation.
As the situation continues to evolve, the world watches with bated breath, hoping for a resolution to this conflict that has claimed countless lives and caused widespread suffering.
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